PUTTING THE POLLS IN CONTEXT
Just a few things to remember about Canadian election polls and polling:1. All of the polls show frenzied numbers because different groups of people are polled at different times in different locations. If the Tories are at 31% one day and 26 % the next, it doesn't mean Stephen Harper made a mistake, it just means a different group of people were polled in a location where the demographic didn't favour him.
2. Different areas have different biases. If a poll is conducted in the NDP Beaches area of Toronto it will yield a much different result than in the Conservative suburbs of Burlington. Keep this in mind. We don't know where these polls take place or how they are weighted.
3. Polls are commissioned and those who commission polls have biases. They pay to get a specific result. The poll that they release to the public will be very different than the polls they choose to keep internal.
4. Many polls are used by people in power to sway public opinion. Not reflect it. We all know the Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail want a Liberal majority victory. If they release a poll with the Liberals far ahead it is because they want the public to see the Liberals as winning which will encourage people to vote for them. That doesn't mean the people will.
5. This election right now is probably closer than many would like to think. Let's not fool ourselves, the Liberals are definitely ahead, but the Conservatives are not out yet.
6. Do not trust that polling firms and individuals do not let their personal biases get in the way of polling. Remember, all of the polls before the last American election predicted President John Kerry would be making a triumphant victory speech that night. Even John Stewart was decked out in his Hollywood best. But, most of the exit polls were taken in 'blue states' like New York. This was deliberately done to out psych conservatives...who came out in record numbers. We know how that story ended. John Stewart virtually cried on national television.
7. Remember that sadly, Toronto is a write-off. The only Ontario polls that really count are the ones taken in the suburb areas...Peterborough, Brampton, Burlington etc. This is where the election will be won or lost.
8. Don't look at the daily rolling polls. They are silly. People do not change this quickly. Those polls are only done for entertainment value and remember, from the network perspective elections are entertainment and money.
I know how it feels to be an ideological conservative in Canada. You feel alone, like no one can hear you and there is no hope. You are constantly innundated with left-wing propaganda from the CBC and junk culture like the latest Atom Egoyan film scored with a Tragically Hip soundtrack. You dread office Christmas parties because you know sooner or later some ignorant, arrogant liberal with no facts and a lot of nerve is going to say something against what you hold dear and you'll have to 'out' yourself. If you live in a major city you know that hearing disparaging remarks about Christianity or Catholicism is a near regular occurance.
Don't let it get to you. There are a lot of us out there...almost a third of the country is locked on our side. That's a strong base. The Liberals know this.
Don't give up.
I know it is a cliche...but only one poll counts.
posted by Nicol DuMoulin @ 3:15 PM
8 Comments:
Cliche, but oh so true.
And you hit the nail on the feeling alone just read my last few LJ entries! Sheep in this country!
Nicol, as a working member of the Arts community I notice that almost all my conversations with the "ignorant, arrogant liberal with no facts" start with how "scary" Stephen Harper is. During the most recent of these discussions I finally decided to ask my co-worker what, specifically, was so scary about Harper. The individual replied, without a hint of humour(or even mild irony)"Have you ever watched his eyes? The way they dart back and forth? That's scary."
Also, I'm not a Christian searching for pagans behind every bush, but I honestly can't count how many artists I've worked with that joyfully proclaim their hatred of the Christian faith. It's becoming a modern doctrine. Even today, a writer's ten year old son, who I've been working with very closely for a few months now, shared his venomous contempt for "stupid missionaries". He backed down once I explained that my wife and I have both served as missionaries... and explained what a missionary actually is. Until that point he couldn't have really told me. This morning at public school he had just learned that missionaries "were people that killed natives if they didn't convert to Christianity." I let him know it was kind of like saying that Germans were people who killed Jews and AIDS was that disease that killed gay people. I think he finally got it...
I doubt his history teacher would.
Sharon,
Thank you. I'll be sure to look at your entries. Be sure to remember...you are not alone. All the best!
Straphanger,
Thanks also. Yes, it's the venom that gets to me. This is why I am now more than ever so incensed that daycare is the most important issue of this campaign. What young kids are being taught in the name of 'progressive politics' terrifies me.
It has got me worked up more than any other issue...even crime.
I live in the Trinity-Spadina riding, in a building where I've noticed 4 Olivia Chow signs up in windows and I've heard the most ridiculous things about Harper. Apparently, he would buy nuclear weapons, throw old people out of nursing homes, oppress gays and lesbians, and just in general impose his Western redneck policies upon the center of the universe, Toronto. Closet conservatives are hesitant to reveal their political persuasions for fear of psychological harrassment. Imagine that, no free speech in Canada. It's the Charter, stupid.
Right now, people are most tolerant of jihadists in Toronto like the Khadr family than a Christian or a conservative. The Khadr's were fighting imperialism afterall. I guess all those women executed in the Kabul soccer stadium were imperialists.
The GTA will give the Liberals another government buttressed by the NDP and you can bet on gushing reviews by the CBC and Toronto Star of a progressive government that's going to get down to business and get results for Canadians! There's no hope for this country, perhaps I should move to Alberta.
Trapped,
Trinity Spadina-that's tough. I know that area well and have friends who live in it. At least in my riding of Eglinton-Lawrence the conservatives have a moderate presence.
And Olivia Chow is somewhat 'out there' I'll say to be kind. I've seen her debate three times over the years and whenever she gets stuck and can't remember her facts she starts accusing her opponent of being a racist. It's quite frightening actually. She just repeats the phrase over and over like a drone..."That's racist, that's racist". Of course she will do this even if it is an issue when race isn't even a factor.
Sad thing is...in your riding, I might actually vote for her if it is close just to make sure it is not a Liberal seat. Scary times indeed.
Yes, I may even vote for Olivia to knock off the Liberal. Funny thing is that although Tony Ianno has been the MP since 1993, the only thing he's really known for is that he keeps beating Olivia, lol.
Elgin-Lawrence, Joe Volpe country. I don't think he was at Martin's gun confiscation announcement this morning. Volpe apparently is scheming behind the scenes to lynch his boss. Sounds familiar doesn't it? Hmmm.
I live in Scarborough. Last time around, it was a sea of red. Early days yet, but everywhere you go, the signs are blue. I've seen at least a hundred Conservative signs (all lawn signs on private property) and one NDP sign. Not one Liberal.
My community has a very high Muslim population, very high immigrant population and low income.
This tells me that the Liberals are not speaking well to their traditional base.
Yea, I'm not sure why some people seemed to think we were going to high step all the way into the political endzone this time around. Its a long election campaign, its going to take a little while for people to come around. Throwing up our hands in the air at a little adversity isn't productive. We need to keep plugging away, and getting the message out to people.
We don't have the media on our side, I'm not sure why that's cause for some people's dispair. We're hardly poking them in the eye, its simply that they happen to be part of the enemy. What we do have is a good message, good policies and some great candidates. We simply need to take that to the people and hope to persuade them that its time to give us a chance.
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