The War Room

BEFORE THE DEBATES

A few thoughts as we go into the final series of debates, which leads us into Act 3 of our little drama.

-A few weeks ago I said Stephen Harper looked good but sooner or later the polls would have to move. They have. I'm not too worried about the whole 'peaked too early thing'. If real change is in the air then those numbers will hold. If the number shifts were just fads and trends and parked votes...it won't matter when they peak, the hold won't stay.

-I'm concerned that for all of his problems people might see Paul Martin as the new underdog going into the debates and cut him more slack than he deserves...which is none. As long as Harper can just sort of 'rise above it all' he should be fine.

-The new Liberal attack ads, y'know the ones with the folksy music playing in the background while the VO says Stephen Harper is a fascist and such...

...they made my wife and I laugh hard. I do not think they will be as effective. As someone who has spent much time in an edit suite cultivating images for effect, the effect here is soft. Like background noise. They do not instill fear as an emotion in the viewer. They are also more misrepresentations and lies. I do not think they will work.

-But I could be wrong.

-That Toronto is still a Liberal stronghold after all of the crime that occurs here still saddens me. They really do not understand. Most of the people that I've talked to about this still think there is no real problem. My wife had the good fortune to accompany a friend of a friend home on the subway the other night after a dinner. The young man was a CBC writer doing a piece on crime in Toronto. He went on about how the crime was caused by 'poor', 'disenfranchised', youth who are 'oppressed' and 'excluded' from the 'blah blah blah'...

He asked my wife for her opinion.

She said that he was wrong. The issue was one of young, vicious, Jamaican gangs. Until you can say those words, she said, you will never solve the problem. She then told him what she thought, and releated many of the views I have shared with you in The War Room.

He said he had never heard these thoughts before about gang culture and would contact her again for more input on the CBC story.

He never did.

-Be very wary of all of those polls that show the Conservatives leading with an NDP vote of more than 15%. By my guess, if it really looks like Harper will win, those extra percentages will shift to the Liberals very quickly. Jack Layton has been doing his best fear mongering lately and still doesn't seem to realize that it hurts him. As for those Ipsos Reid polls that have the Liberals with 80 odd seats and the NDP close to 30. I just don't buy it. Could be...but I just don't buy it.

With the exception of maybe one person I know who is a die hard NDP type, most of the ones I know are voting Liberal. They would sell their own mothers into a bordello and give the profits to Conrad Black if it would keep Stephen Harper out of the PM's chair. I'm just saying, come election day, the NDP are not getting 30 seats.

Be happy for Harper, he's doing great and looks great doing the great he is doing. That Globe and Mail cover yesterday rocked, but believe me when I say...the Liberal vote will come out. The Paul Martin supporters do not believe he is a poor leader. They are totally fooled sheep and think he is their man. They buy his spin hook, line and sinker. They really believe this is the last fight for Trudeau's Canada. They are not going down easy.

-On the flip side, I am seeing more Conservative signs in my area, Eglinton-Lawrence, than I have ever before in Toronto.

Even restaurants and convenience stores to the south of me are not afraid of showing big, Conservative signs in their windows. That is good. They are not ashamed. Perhaps there is a whiff of change in the air. If there is that much change in Toronto, maybe in the rest of Ontario...maybe.

-On a final note, I was in my local LCBO yesterday. A Rastafarian came in, bought some rum and kept talking aloud to anyone who would listen,

"Do not vote Liberal, man. They destroy da country. They destroy da economy. They bad people, man. They gonna give you all popcorn and beer."

He made everyone, even the tellers a bit edgy. He encouraged them all to vote NDP instead.

I said nothing but nodded at him and smiled.

Hey, I agreed with two thirds of what he said.

posted by Nicol DuMoulin @ 4:23 AM