The War Room

IGGY AND OOK

There has been much talk lately of who would be the best candidate for the Conservatives to go up against in the next Federal Election. A week or so ago, a memo was reported by the Toronto Star that said the Conservatives feared Michael Ignatieff the most.

Now upfront, I have absolutely no connection to the Conservative Party whatsoever but my best guess is that the memo was deliberately leaked so that the tide would turn against Bob Rae, whom would have been more formidable. The fact that the author of the memo blithely stood by its contents when questioned, only fortified that impression on me.

With an Ignatieff led Liberal Party, the left/progressive vote stays fractured, splintered like a piece of wood that has just been pummeled with an axe. NDP'ers and left-flank liberals abandon the party while moderates and right-leaning Liberals stay or go with Harper, who is most likely to win. Ignatieff has many inconsistencies behind him and many quotes that can be used against him in an election. He also has not lived in Canada for good portion of his life.

Bob Rae on the other hand unites the left. Yes, some moderates and conservative liberals might leave but most NDP'ers would have no problem voting for Bob Rae. He would unite all 'progressive' voters and let's not fool ourselves, they far outweigh any other group in Canada right now.

Do not be fooled by the whole 'Ontario won't vote for Bob Rae' schtick the media is selling.

Point blank: Paul Bernardo could run for the Liberal Party of Canada in Toronto Center and the whole GTA would support him. 'At least we know he's not a social conservative' , they would rationalize to themselves and the 'cherniaks' of the world would go on parroting whatever line he fed'em. Same for Bob Rae. Oh, some rural Ontarians would take a pass and some bellweather ridings (ie. Peterborough) would stay Tory, but Rae is not the harbinger of Liberal doom that people are saying. It would be a tough fight. Of course he does have his drawbacks, but I think Ignatieff has more.

I have no idea who will be leading the Liberals in a few weeks, but I suspect if it is Michael Ignatieff, the higher ups in the Conservative Party of Canada will be very pleased.

posted by Nicol DuMoulin @ 4:10 AM