FIVE HILLS JOHN TORY HAS TO CLIMB (AKA THE UNDISTINGUISHED GENTLEMAN)
5. Too many left-wing parties (Greens, NDP) that will bleed to the Liberals at the last minute4. Too many centrist voters still fear what they perceive to be 'Mike Harris' elements in the Ontario PC party. It is not true, but it matters.
3. Toronto's demographic has changed in the past 10 years to drift further left. Even centrist candidates are too far right for Toronto at this time in its history. I focus on Toronto because Toronto counts for a lot.
2. John Tory, while a nice man, has not done nearly enough to distinguish himself as an even center-right politician. Other than his religious school funding proposition, what of significance has he done to appeal to his base? On most other occasions he has done everything he can to show he actually disagrees vehemently with his base. Problem is, it leaves grassroots PC's unmotivated to vote for him and left-wing Ontarians will not vote for him anyway. Not a way to win an election.
1.Campaign is based on public anger against Dalton McGuinty and his promise breaking, not based on wanting to vote for Tory. And getting an Ontarian angry against a Liberal is pretty much harder to do than getting an NDP'r angry against Hamas.
I have said before, John Tory is a good man. I have met him and I like him. I think he would have made a great centrist mayor for Toronto. But sadly, he does not seem to have the fire in the belly. He is essentially a wealthy businessman who wants something else to do in the autumn of his life. He does a lot of good on his own and much charity work. But he is not really a political animal. That is something different. He is trying to win based on just being a nice guy without really distinguishing himself.
The fact that I, and everyone knows what I think about Dalton McGuinty, can't even get motivated to really want Tory to win says something.
Personally I think McGuinty will get back with possibly even another majority. Being a shite politician doesn't matter to many Ontarians. It's the label that counts. They'd rather gargle the acidic mouthwash of the Liberal Brand then try a new minty fresh brand labelled Progressive Conservative.
It's sad, but I wouldn't even rule out Tory losing against Wynne. I know many will say it is unlikely but...
...ultimately, I just think John Tory is an ideological liberal who is a PC because that is where most of his business contacts reside. That doesn't make him a bad man...just an undistinguished gentleman.
posted by Nicol DuMoulin @ 8:12 AM
6 Comments:
Terry O'Neill, Western Standard, July 30, 2007:
"You've put your stamp on the party through a new policy document that is seen as moving the party to the centre. Do you see it this way or do you see your party as small-c conservative?"
John Tory:
"No, I see it as a party that's in the centre. There are elements of me that are very conservative when it comes to how carefully you manage the money and how you govern yourself in terms of fiscal policy. My commitment to enterprise is that, in the end, it's the only thing that can produce the prosperity so that we can then decide on how properly to allocate, in terms of sharing that wealth among the population. On community safety issues, I'm very conservative. But I have a huge social conscience."
http://www.westernstandard.ca/website/index.cfm?page=article&article_id=2666
"But I have a huge social conscience."
I reject the notion that having a social conscience by definition means having to have a liberal conscience.
Most left wing definitions of social conscience actually mean social engineering.
That is one of the problems I have with Tory and why he is having problems distinguishng himself.
What I found surprising in the John Tory's Western Standard interview was that his "commitment to enterprise" is because it is the source of funds for social programs.
"My commitment to enterprise is that, in the end, it's the only thing that can produce the prosperity so that we can then decide on how properly to allocate, in terms of sharing that wealth among the population."
John Tory supports businesses because they are a source of taxes for "sharing that wealth"?
I wonder if that jibes with many corporate mission statements: "Our mission is to pay taxes."
What about the fact that "enterprises" create wealth for the principles, the employees, the shareholders, the supporting "enterprises" and the communities?
No mention of that?
I agree with #1, #2 and #4.
#3 is really code for saying there are more immigrant Canadians/ethnic minorities in the GTA in 2007 than there were in 1995, but saying that hurts the PCs presumes immigrants and ethnic minorities vote Liberal provincially. I don’t know that there’s much evidence to support that proposition – I would be interested to see know they voted in 1995 and 1999, and whether those vote patterns were different than others in the 905 belt.
#5 is not a problem because whatever his other failings, John Tory isn’t “scary”. Unlike with Harris or Harper, the Liberals won’t be able to spook people by saying “we have to stop John Tory”.
"3 is really code for saying there are more immigrant Canadians/ethnic minorities in the GTA in 2007 than there were in 1995,"
Not at all. I was actually referring to the rising arts and secular classes that vote Liberal at all costs. By and large they tend to be white and born and raised in Canada.
For example, I used to live in the Dufferin College area. That area used to be Portuguese, Italian immigrant based and voted Liberal but had conservative social values. Now it is being gentrified with the white arts, university neo-Marxist class that push it further into the NDP zone.
That, along with a very left media consisting of Gen X types, has pushed Toronto furter left.
Other than his religious school funding proposition, what of significance has he done to appeal to his base? On most other occasions he has done everything he can to show he actually disagrees vehemently with his base. Problem is, it leaves grassroots PC's unmotivated to vote for him and left-wing Ontarians will not vote for him anyway. Not a way to win an election.
You said a mouthful there. I really don't think we have a true blue Conservative option in Ontario. Just various shades of red and orange.
I'll be holding my nose and voting for the least awful.
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